Transform your Microsoft Excel spreadsheets to get a credible picture of risk, create accurate predictive models, search for the best solution and maximise appreciation of the risks that you are facing. From Monte Carlo simulation to forecasting and optimisation, Crystal Ball software tools deliver. Crystal Ball is the industry-standard for oil, gas and mining company executives to analyse the uncertainties in their spreadsheet models.

Summary of Features

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Crystal Ball 11.1.2.4

  • Includes Support & Maintenance
  • Access Example Models & Tutorials
  • Windows Only

Editions

Click on the Edition to see more information and pricing

Crystal Ball 11.1.2.4

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Crystal Ball 11.1.2.4

Crystal Ball is the easiest way to perform fast risk analysis and optimisation in your own spreadsheets. With one integrated toolset, you can use your own historical data to build accurate models, automate "what if" analysis to understand the effect of underlying uncertainty and search for the best solution or project mix.
 

Oracle Crystal Ball is the leading spreadsheet-based application for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. It gives you unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk. With Crystal Ball, you can make the right tactical decisions to reach your objectives and gain a competitive edge under even the most uncertain market conditions.


New Features in v11.1.2.4.000

  • Support for Microsoft Excel 2016

  • Support for Microsoft Windows 10

  • Predictor Enhancements

  • Cell Preferences Enhancements

  • Localization in Additional Languages

  • OptQuest Optimization Enhancements

  • Damped Trend Exponential Smoothing Techniques for Forecasting

  • Crystal Ball EPM Integration with Strategic Finance

  • Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer Integration with Strategic Finance

  • Sorting Objects for Selection


Features


Crystal Ball Screenshot

Adding Probability to Risk Calculations

What is the likelihood of reaching a particular goal? What are the critical factors affecting risk? The answer to these and other common "what-if" scenarios can be determined by assigning probability to unknown variables. Excel can't handle the complexity of probability analysis, so you need a better tool: Crystal Ball.

Crystal Ball automates the cumbersome "what-if" process using Monte Carlo simulation, by applying a range of values or a probability distribution to each uncertain variable.

The program generates random values from within the defined probability ranges, and then recalculates the model literally hundreds or thousands of times, storing the results of each "what-if" scenario. This timesaving process alleviates having to manually enter different scenarios over and over again.


Monte Carlo Simulation
Calculates multiple scenarios of a spreadsheet model automatically. Frees users from the constraints of estimates and best-guess values.

Distribution Gallery
Provides an intuitive interface for selecting model input variables; includes 16 discrete and continuous distributions plus custom distribution. Simplifies the quantifying of risk, means you don't have to enter the distribution formula into Excel.

Categories of Distributions
Create predefined distributions, modify your existing distributions and organize them using custom categories. Create your own library of distributions, organized in categories. Re-use distributions from one project to the next.

Publish and Subscribe Feature for Categories
Publish categories and share with many users. Work as a team sharing models and data to get your work done faster.

Process Capability Features
Define spec limits (LSL, USL and Target) in your forecasts, calculate capability metrics and view simulation results and metrics together in one split-view chart. With capability metrics in Crystal Ball you simplify your workflow and better integrate simulation into your Six Sigma and Quality methodology.

Forecast Charts
Graphically display simulation results and statistics. Allows users to track and analyze thousands of possible outcomes; charts are interactive.

Split-View charts
View forecast charts, descriptive statistics and capability metrics side-by-side on the same chart. Enable up to 6 charts and tables in one view. One chart tells the whole story.

Sensitivity and Tornado Analyses
Two separate methods for identifying the most critical model input variables. Enable users to focus on high-risk model input variables.

Distribution Fitting
Uses historical data for defining assumptions. Can fit to continuous and discrete distributions. Allows users to customize model input variables based on real-world results.

Correlation
Models dependencies between uncertain input variables. Provides more accurate modeling and forecasting.

Charting and Reporting
Automates report generation, includes the ability to overlay forecasts and to project trends through time. Creates clear analysis and presentation of all forecasts, improves communication with colleagues, management, and clients.

Precision Control
Provides advanced simulation capabilities. Increases simulation accuracy and flexibility; saves time.

Latin Hypercube Sampling
Alternative simulation method to Monte Carlo. Samples regularly across distribution, excellent for simulations with restriction on number of trials.

Data extraction
Exports data from Crystal Ball memory. Allows users to examine individual simulation results and transfer results to other software programs.

CB Tools
Macro-driven tools that use Crystal Ball; Includes scenario analysis, decision table, data analysis, tornado chart, correlation matrices, 2D-simulation, batch fit, and boot strap. Automates modeling processes with effortless and powerful tools.

CB Predictor
CB Predictor uses established forecasting methods to help identify and extrapolate the trends in your historical data. CB Predictor analyzes your data and produces insightful and accurate forecasts.

Crystal Ball and CB Predictor Developer Kits
The Crystal Ball and CB Predictor Developer Kits bring complete automation and control to these tools from within a Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) program or any other language outside of Excel that supports OLE 2 automation.

Microsoft Certification
Certified Excel macro provider. Eliminates security concerns.


Industry Examples of Crystal Ball

There are many industries that use Crystal Ball software. Crystal Ball is the tool chosen by more than 85% of the Fortune 500 companies. Like in the United States, Crystal Ball is the most popular choice in Australia and New Zealand to help improve spreadsheet modelling and risk analysis.
 

Mining Applications

The rapidly fluctuating price of minerals, increasing competition and volatile financial markets have placed the mining industry in a position of ever-increasing risk.


Oil & Gas Applications

Oil & Gas exploration deals with many unknowns, with high risk and uncertainty an inherent part of the oil and gas industry. The management of risk in oil and gas exploration has always been difficult.


Six Sigma and Process Improvement

Six Sigma is a set of practices originally developed by Motorola to systematically improve processes by eliminating defects. Motorola uses Crystal Ball in its Six Sigma Program.


Environmental Research

Crystal Ball is for anyone who uses spreadsheets and needs to forecast uncertain results. Environmental geologists, cost engineers, environmental scientists, hydrogeologists and project managers all rely on Crystal Ball.


Banking and Finance

To ignore the effects of uncertainty in your financial and business analyses means to potentially expose your organisation to unnecessary risk and potential failure.

Addons

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Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer 11.1.2.4

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Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer 11.1.2.4

Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer, an option for Crystal Ball, adds the advance capability of optimization and substantial processing speed to the power of Monte Carlo simulation.


Overview

  • Optimize your decisions while accounting for variation and constraints (using OptQuest)

  • Increase the speed of calculation by up to 100 times (using Extreme Speed)

  • A license of Crystal Ball or Crystal Ball Enterprise Performance Management is required


Features

Think in ranges - Get the full picture in the face of an uncertain future
Identify optimal solutions - Optimize your decisions while accounting for variation and constraints
Gain valuable insights - Identify and mitigate the key inputs that drive risk
Reduce simulation time - Start using Oracle Crystal Ball in minutes and increase the speed of calculation by up to 100 times
Communicate your risks - Share your findings through graphs, charts, and reports to support decisions


OptQuest

Optimisation Under Uncertainty

OptQuest is a global optimisation software tool that works with Crystal Ball models to find an optimal choice for a given decision. Need to minimise costs? Maximise profits? OptQuest can assists you in making the best decisions despite conditions of uncertainty.


OptQuest is easy to use: the step-by-step OptQuest wizard guides the process of defining constraints, specifying the objective of the outcome, and setting the requirements. OptQuest automatically performs the calculations based on those specifications and pinpoints the best, or optimal, solution. OptQuest then transfers the best solution into the user’s spreadsheet model.


For example, if you were a supply chain manager, you could use Crystal Ball to simulate uncertain demand and the likelihood of running short on stock (given specific inventory levels). For the same problem, OptQuest could help you to identify adequate inventory levels, reduce your holding costs, and optimise your potential profit, while still accounting for the uncertainty of demand.


You can also use OptQuest for portfolio analysis, where you determine an investment strategy that optimises profit while taking into consideration the uncertainty around the annual returns of each asset. Other applications for optimisation include workforce planning of employees, configuration of machines for production scheduling, the location of facilities for distribution, and tolerances in manufacturing design.


How is OptQuest different and better than Excel Solver?

Excel Solver uses classical linear programming and nonlinear programming methods designed for problems where every locally optimal solution is also globally optimal.


In contrast, OptQuest uses a combination of metaheuristic procedures from methods such as Tabu Search, Neural Networks, and Scatter Search. All of these methods are effective for models that Excel Solver can solve, as well as for models with local solutions that are not globally optimal, which is usually true in the real world.


OptQuest has three major advantages over the Excel Solver:

  • OptQuest finds the optimal solution in an environment of uncertainty

  • OptQuest will not get trapped in local optimal solutions

  • OptQuest can handle nonlinear relationships difficult to describe with mathematical formulas


Extreme Speed

Get it done, fast. Run your simulations up to 100 times faster than normal.

With unprecedented speed in spreadsheet simulation and optimisation, Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer quickly solves almost any problem where uncertainty and variability distort spreadsheet forecasts. Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer extends the ability of Crystal Ball with a dramatic increase in simulation speed - up to 100 times faster than normal.

How Fast Is Extreme Speed?

To select Extreme Speed: from the Run Preferences menu, simply select the Extreme speed mode to run your simulations up to 100 times faster than normal.

So fast, in fact, we put in a Demo speed mode, which runs simulations in "slow-motion" to make it easier to watch values change in spreadsheet cells and charts. Great for presentations or for teaching!